Reduction of reserve margin with increasing wind penetration: a quantitative first-principles analysis

ii To my brother, sisters, and parents. iii A Wind that rose though not a Leaf In any Forest stirred, But with itself did cold engage Beyond the Realm of Bird. A Wind that woke a lone Delight Like Separation's Swell – Restored in Arctic Confidence To the Invisible. – Emily Dickinson iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge my advisors, my professors, and the many fellow students who continue to challenge and inspire me. v ABSTRACT Access to reliable electric power is considered by the developed world to be a minimum requirement for a reasonable standard of living. In addition to meeting a fluctuating demand, the modern electricity industry must now integrate intermittent generation sources like wind into the grid. Reserve margin allocation (RMA) for an acceptable loss of load expectation (LOLE) allows traditional generators to maintain grid reliability in the presence of small penetrations of wind energy. However, traditional RMA over-allocates the reserve capacity in the presence of short-term intermittency mitigation techniques like energy storage and demand response. For economic operation of the modern, grid better characterization techniques are needed for reserve margin reduction behavior in the presence of wind energy. This thesis addresses this challenge with a quantitative RMA analysis using real-world and simulated wind data for three different grid scenarios, with and without intermittency mitigation. The research is novel in its first-principles approach and its investigation into the practical validity of the analogy between demand response and energy response.